In the high-stakes world of product innovation, companies often face a paradox: adopting cutting-edge technology — such as biosensors that monitor heart rate and stress or energy-efficient chips that enable continuous health tracking in wearable devices — can make or break a product, but the methods used to evaluate these decisions are often outdated, treating new technology as a risk to be minimized rather than an opportunity to be seized. A new study published by researchers from Skoltech in the Design Science journal introduces a novel framework called PoLaRis that promises to change how engineers and executives decide which technologies to bet on.
The PoLaRis framework provides a structured way to evaluate technology infusion during the earliest, most uncertain stages of product design. Instead of relying solely on risk aversion, the model balances three critical criteria: Leap Potential, Learning, and Risk — hence the name PoLaRis.
“Common systems engineering methodologies tend to view new technologies primarily as potential risks to the products rather than opportunities for performance improvements,” explained Research Engineer Anastasia Stelvaga from the Skoltech Engineering Center, the lead author of the study. “We wanted to bridge that gap. By introducing ‘Learning’ as a formal criterion, we are valuing the knowledge gained through integration, which often becomes a company's most enduring technological asset.”
The framework offers two complementary approaches. The first, E-PoLaRis, collects and aggregates multidisciplinary expert evaluations using the structured Delphi technique to score concepts on the three criteria. The second, N-PoLaRis, is a significant evolution that allows a single system architect to quantify the same three parameters using mathematical models. This numerical approach analyzes system architecture through design structure matrices and introduces a new metric, the technology leap potential, which measures a technology’s contribution to product value directly from the user’s perspective.
The framework has been tested across multiple industries. Early iterations of PoLaRis were applied with a major aerospace corporation to evaluate aircraft technologies, while later studies demonstrated its applicability in the wearable electronics sector. This cross-industry validation suggests the framework can support technology evaluation across a wide range of complex engineering systems.
In the present study, the framework was further examined through two case studies in the wearable electronics industry, evaluating three real-world, cutting-edge concepts for next-generation smartwatches. These included an AI power-saving chip and two innovative methods for stress detection. The first study used a panel of 11 experts, while the second applied the new numerical method. The results showed a strong correlation between the expert opinions and the mathematical models, validating the internal consistency of the PoLaRis approach.
The framework proved particularly adept at visualizing the trade-offs inherent in each choice. For instance, one technology concept, a novel non-contact electrodermal activity (EDA) skin sensor for stress detection, offered immense learning potential but came with higher risks due to its immaturity. In contrast, an energy-efficient embedded sensor-processing unit presented a much lower risk profile and high market potential, making it a strong candidate for companies seeking steady, incremental progress.
Professor Clement Fortin from the Skoltech Engineering Center, a study coauthor, highlighted the practical impact of the work. “The feedback from industry partners, including a major aerospace corporation, was extremely positive,” he said. “One venture capital analyst noted that their firm adopted the core principles of PoLaRis, using the Leap-Learning-Risk logic to structure internal discussions and guide investment decisions. It transforms the decision-making process from a simple feasibility check into a strategic evaluation of value creation, knowledge acquisition, and calculated risk-taking.”
By moving beyond a purely risk-centric view, the PoLaRis framework provides product developers and system architects with a simple yet powerful tool to navigate the complexities of modern innovation, ensuring that the technologies of tomorrow are chosen not just for their ability to function, but for their ability to create value and propel a company forward.
